The IMF has recently published a report and one of the data that they publish, the global outlook has the following extract. The following is an extract for the report published and it is;
(World Economic Outlook - October 2009, Sustaining the Recovery)
A Subdued Recovery and Vulnerability to Mild Deflation Summing up the short-term prospects, the policy forces that are driving the currentrebound will gradually lose strength, and the real and financial forces remain weak but are gradually building. Specifically, fiscal stimulus will diminish and inventory rebuilding will gradually lose its influence, while consumption and investment will slowly build. Thus, after contracting by about 1 percent in 2009, global activity is forecast to expand by about 3 percent in 2010.
IMF also have the following chart published. The outlook is certainly pointing to a new new world order by 2010. Emerging economies will out pace and perform the advance economies. See the chart below.
As much as most people out there still are entrap in the post-2008 crisis, we have to accept the fact that we are slowly but surely emerging for the recession as Asia lead the world forward. So people the 2008 is behind all of us. Even the recent keenly discussed topic, "a weaker US dollar" is deem by certain quarters as an end of the world economy! I am of the opinion that the international role of the US dollar and its exchange rate are now two separate matters. A fall in the US dollar's exchange rate would be positive for global balance. With the deficit US is running up, after 2010 they are expected to have a US$ 10 trillion deficit. this itself with see a flight of reserves selling US dollar for Euro dollar or gold as it hit new highs recently.
Well let's see if the 4th QRT will see another run up of Asia equity markets. At the rate the US dollar is losing strength, it would only be "wise" for fund managers managing US billion dollars funds to dump it and take position in Asia region.
So people till then.
Tj
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