Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Some still at this point don’t subscribe to it!

A new world economy is emerging.

They still dwell on the false hope that they are “right” – the market is heading for a double dip. Sure I sympathise with them, however, you don’t lose anything at all, if you stop hoping that you will eventually be spot on as it was not so.

Those who feel that it will come off the cliff and drop has notice that whenever they take that position the market powered on after each round of correction or profit-taking. They realise and found out that when it is deep enough the market will then seek a new high. Just look at this savvy group of warrants and futures traders; they are always tempted to short the market on their futures contract. But time and time again the market surge and powered on to new heights.

The property market, once I was at a investment talk on real estate for the “big boys” and a well know speaker said this – the cycle is 22 years for real estate. But it was kind of a selloff in 2008 when the sub-prime issue started to come on in October 2007. There was a selloff and was then sideways somewhere in October/November 2008 till early March 2009. So the selloff in Asia were done out of fear - fear of the unknown.

But the latest reports streaming out are clearly indicative of a new world order here in this sector. China was report to have beaten the “sh..” out of US and UK, a combine total of US$16.2bil and US$13.7bil respectively according to Real Capital Analytics, in the commercial property sector. China’s transaction totalled US$32.2bil. China is a nation that once have each and every citizen dream of owning a bicycle replaced by the next dream of each owning a car. Today their dream is to own a property and may manifest into properties. Even the new gate-way into the Asian market Singapore, is having lots of trades done in the higher end real estates. This have recently drawn a minister from the Singapore government to put into perspective that they don’t see a bubble in Singapore in this sector, but however, if that does materialise they will take steps to avoid it.

So it is again your call, like it or not, Asia indicators is a healthy report or if I may say the healthiest now as we move forward.

Ben Graham said these 50 odd years ago: “...in the short-run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long-run it’s a weighing machine.” Your call people, but I am not voting for sure.

The CEO of Public Mutual Bhd said this about a year or slightly more ago; "don't let short-term volatility effect your long-term goals". Here again it is spot on and looking back you all know she was right.

Lastly but not the least, in this special month where my Muslim faith friends are observing a fasting and prayer time – Selamat Berpuasa!

Tj

No comments: