Views, Indicators, Opinions, Economy, Updates!

Report Cards for 2 Quarter – Most Major Economies/Countries are Positive!

Another week has gone by. A string of reports as anticipated are “popping” up. They are like green shoots, a sign that the long winter may be finally over as new green shoots of plants are appearing. These series of reporting also happened in the 1^st quarter, however, many of us (including some well known economist) were not so “sure” and doubted that Global Recession has or is bottoming out.

I for one don’t know who to follow and what to believe. I have decided since October 2008, I will not die broke, as like most “famous economist”. I now rely on indicators and monitors that are indicative of the pulse of major industries and countries. Sure and true enough, they pointed to a recovery.

So the saying that the market will ran six ahead, holds true and here are some data that is reflective of it:-

1. China - Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is up in July 2009 as reported by CLSA.
2. Japan – PMI is up by 2.4% in July over June 2009.
3. Bank of Korea reported that Consumer Confidence rose to 109 in July from 106 in June 2009.
4. US New Home Sales is up 11% in June reports US Commence Department.

On the local front, the data are not as forth coming as from its neighbouring country. Anyway they are also showing sign of a recovery, and from MIER etc.

Malaysia “pun boleh”, I say this with sincere knowledge and not with any sarcasm, that Malaysia is also on track for a U-Shape recovery. Here are some of the indicators:-

1. Industrial Production Index is improving, January (-17.9) and May (-11.1).

2. Manufacturing Index – May (-15) and January (-23.4)

3. Tourism improved to 1,894,000 in May 2009.

4. International Reserves

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

USD (billion) 91.3 91.1 87.8 87.7 88.3 91.5

So what would you say to all the above, is there another view or stance to take?

Will the pain of the recession that we are facing and that is equated to the 1930’s last forever? Or from another angle, one that is contradictive to all these quarterly reports – we are going further and deeper into a recession that will warrant for greater caution?

Till then cheerio

Tj