Views, Indicators, Opinions, Economy, Updates!

Hi there people,

Looks like the 2^nd quarter (QRT2) news streaming in are rather on the side that is pointing to an early recovery of economy! Alternatively it would be remotely unlikely that we are heading down south to the days of October 2008 – mid march 2009 drop. Any downward movements may be a correction and the market doing it's usual round of profit-taking.

What are the data release recently indicating?

Are they an early sign of a recovery, thus the worst global recession may be coming to an end?

Here they are, some 2nd QRT data’s:-

1. Singapore – 20% growth q-o-q (1^ST QTR -12%)
2. US declining jobless claims – 11^th July 522K (12^th Jun 608K, 20^th Jun 627K, 27^th Jun 603K, 4^th Jul 569K)
3. China’s QRT2 GDP growth @ 7.9% (4^th ORT 2008 @ 6.8%, 1^st QRT 2009@ 6.1%)
4. JPMorgan (2^nd largest US bank) 32% rise in QRT2.
5. Goldman Sachs profits up 33% in QRT2

So, people my firm believe is this; some signs of recovery predictions are out there.

However, on exactly when it will take place will depend on what you look out to read, what indicators you choose to ignore and in all fairness which channel you choose to watch. So, don't wake up one morning to find out that we missed it again, like how we missed the 1998 Financial Crisis or the 1986-88 Global Recession!

Worst case scenario is, oh well I won't miss the next one when it comes along again, another 10 years cycle.

Tj